My math must be wrong.
Shelley has started a kitty in which IMFL'ers predict their finish time, and whoever comes closest to their prediction wins the pot.
Last year, my projection went like this:
Probable finish: 16:59:59
Possible finish: 16:XX:xx.
In-my-dreams finish: Sub-16.
The way it went down:
Start of race: Anything under 17 hours.
Start of run: I've got 8 hours, I can walk the whole thing if I want.
Middle of run: I'm way ahead of the game, I'm gonna walk a few miles and not break my butt.
Around mile 21: Holy $h!t, if I quit this lollygagging, I could finish in 15 hrs. I'm gonna walk/jog.
Mile 23: I better not walk anymore at all.
OK, here's some math, based on recent training results, including transitions.
T-1: 5:00 (no jawing with tent-mates, even if they turn out to be my closest friends.)
Bike: 6:45 (15 min longer than ChesapeakeMan, where I went too hard, not saving anything 'cause I wasn't running afterward)
Bathroom break(s) on bike: 3:00 (I pee standing up w/o disrobing. email me for how-to, ladies)
Special needs stop on bike: 3:00
Run: 5:40 (walking only through aid stations -- I really didn't need all that walking last year)
Finish: 13:29 ?????
No way? Can I have added this up right?
Of course, this assumes no flat tires or other mechanical trouble. However, it's adding 10 minutes to the marathon time I turn in when I'm sick but do the marathon anyway. And 20 minutes to last year's swim time, since I won't be carried downstream by an outgoing tide. And adding 15 minutes to the bike time I just did at ChesapeakeMan, PLUS bathroom stops, which I didn't take there (for which my coach gave me hell, so now I'm drinking more.) It's taking about 50 minutes off last year's "run" time, during which I walked the first mile and about 6 miles straight in the middle.
OK, revised projections:
Probable: 14:55 (PR by 3 minutes)
Holy cripe. Dare I dream?
Update: Yep, math was wrong. I added it up a 1000th time and it's 14:29 in-my-dreams, not 13:29. Whew. That lets off a lot of pressure!!