Thursday, October 19, 2006

IMFL FINISH TIME?

My math must be wrong.

Shelley has started a kitty in which IMFL'ers predict their finish time, and whoever comes closest to their prediction wins the pot.

Last year, my projection went like this:
Probable finish: 16:59:59
Possible finish: 16:XX:xx.
In-my-dreams finish: Sub-16.

The way it went down:
Start of race: Anything under 17 hours.
Start of run: I've got 8 hours, I can walk the whole thing if I want.
Middle of run: I'm way ahead of the game, I'm gonna walk a few miles and not break my butt.
Around mile 21: Holy $h!t, if I quit this lollygagging, I could finish in 15 hrs. I'm gonna walk/jog.
Mile 23: I better not walk anymore at all.
Finish: 14:58.

OK, here's some math, based on recent training results, including transitions.
Swim: 1:50
T-1: 5:00 (no jawing with tent-mates, even if they turn out to be my closest friends.)
Bike: 6:45 (15 min longer than ChesapeakeMan, where I went too hard, not saving anything 'cause I wasn't running afterward)
Bathroom break(s) on bike: 3:00 (I pee standing up w/o disrobing. email me for how-to, ladies)
Special needs stop on bike: 3:00
T-2: 3:00
Run: 5:40 (walking only through aid stations -- I really didn't need all that walking last year)
Finish: 13:29 ?????

No way? Can I have added this up right?

Of course, this assumes no flat tires or other mechanical trouble. However, it's adding 10 minutes to the marathon time I turn in when I'm sick but do the marathon anyway. And 20 minutes to last year's swim time, since I won't be carried downstream by an outgoing tide. And adding 15 minutes to the bike time I just did at ChesapeakeMan, PLUS bathroom stops, which I didn't take there (for which my coach gave me hell, so now I'm drinking more.) It's taking about 50 minutes off last year's "run" time, during which I walked the first mile and about 6 miles straight in the middle.

OK, revised projections:
Probable: 14:55 (PR by 3 minutes)
Possible: 14:00
In-my-dreams: 13:29.

Holy cripe. Dare I dream?
_____________________

Update: Yep, math was wrong. I added it up a 1000th time and it's 14:29 in-my-dreams, not 13:29. Whew. That lets off a lot of pressure!!

7 comments:

Kurt in Boston said...

You might have a 13:59 in you.

No dilly-dallying on the run.

Fe-lady said...

Anything under 15:00 is stellar!
No dilly-dallying or jawing with friends...just remember to have fun along the way too!
Best of LUCK!

nancytoby said...

So which time are you betting on??

Jonathan said...

screw it. stick with the 13:29!

Ellie said...

Hey, Jonathan.... I like your attitude! (And your profile pic)

Vickie said...

And that's doable for you too I'm sure! I'll be watching and waiting!

Crazy Eddie said...

From here on end, I'll be saying Holy Cripe...

Absolutely true. Anything under 15:00 is great. Go Grandma!!